Pakistan Musharraf League

Cobrapost News Features | Uploaded on August 06 2006

PML is faced by too many internal challenges to offer President Musharraf another term in office on a platter but he has somehow run himself out of alternatives

Some recent political developments in and outside Pakistan have the potential to re-shape the future of politics in the country for years to come. These developments include the signing of charter of democracy by the opposition parties in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD), the joining of hands by Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) with ARD for a possible no-trust vote against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, simmering dissensions within the King's party and the tumultuous caused by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) through its threat to resign from the government.

 

Not only this, as Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) are moving fast towards a point of no return as far as the prospects of any reconciliation between President Musharraf and them are concerned, the choices for Musharraf-led regime are becoming increasingly narrower. With their respective positions firmly entrenched, President Musharraf is finding himself all the more aligned to the political elements whose support he desperately banked on from the outset. The problem with all the King's parties in the world is that they cling for survival to the tree they are supposed to look after. As expected, Pakistan Muslim League (PML), led by the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, has become completely dependent for its survival on the uniform of the president, instead of providing him a broad political base, at least in Punjab, so that he could win another term in office, the very reason why their faction of PML was shot to power in 2002. While people in PML have fully benefited from their tenure in the government, it's debatable if they will be able to generate the political support that the president needs to stay in power.

 

It's mainly because the party is struggling to keep itself united in the heat of an ever-changing political environment. In Balochistan, intra-PML the fissures are glaring and the split is complete. In NWFP, the split is being artificially thwarted from taking place while in Sindh Musharraf is walking a tightrope in his bid to maintain the delicate balance, not only between the different PML factions but also among the constituents of the coalition government in the province. In Punjab, where PML should have had a smooth run given the fact that the province is the home turf for the Musharraf's closest allies, the situation is not all that straightforward. A breakaway faction has already made its intentions public through its spokesman Farooq Amjad Mir, a Lahore-based member of the National Assembly. Similarly, the members of Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarian (Patriot) have problems with the Chaudhrys' attempts to consolidate their hold on the provincial power base, if not in the entire Punjab then at least in the constituencies which Patriots consider their own.

 

The upcoming elections will be the first time in five years when Chaudhrys are expected to deliver. Their mentor, in a dire need for political support, is eagerly waiting. The least he expects from them is to keep the party united, at least in Punjab, so that he is able to concentrate on other provinces to carve out a decent political support there. But like those banking on the Republican Party in 1950s and the Convention League in 1960s, the president is learning the hard way that it is him who is providing support to a party and not the other way round.

 

"The president is expecting the party and its leaders to perform well but this is nowhere in sight," says Farooq Amjad Mir, the main voice of the PML's so-called forward bloc in the National Assembly. "Chaudhrys capitalized on the support of the president and consolidating their base in Punjab but in return they are failing to ensure that the president is re-elected without a hitch," he adds. "No one takes Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain seriously anymore. It was a mistake (for the president) to bank on their support. The electoral strategy of Chaudhrys is to find people who can win seats. I think this is a defeatist approach." Mir, who claims his group of dissidents comprises more than 70 members of the National Assembly, adds that "Chaudhrys openly speak of leaving the urban Punjab for PPP and PML-N to win and to concentrate on the rural areas by fielding strong candidates. What this strategy can deliver in terms of a wide political base, I am not sure."

 

The local government elections of 2005 pushed open some other challenges the Chaudhrys face in their stronghold of Punjab. Before and during those elections their interests clashed with those of other PML bigwigs like Farooq Leghari, Manzoor Wattoo, Zafrullah Jamali and others for the first time since the creation of a unified PML under the patronage of President Musharraf. In the turf wars that ensued, the chaudhrys -- who see local government politics being pivotal to their interests -- did not concede an inch to other PML partners. But the bitterness that their rivals felt at their success has acted as a catalyst to an already strained relationship among the PML constituents.

 

"In the aftermath of local government polls, pacifying dissensions is the biggest challenge the party faces today," says Mian Manzoor Wattoo, a former chief minister of Punjab and one of the PML stalwarts. "I think the differences will be dealt with in due course of time. Chaudhrys were always allies of Musharraf and I think everything will fall in place come election time," he adds in an optimistic tone.

 

President Mushrraf's alignment with Chaudhrys suffers from one additional problem. Chaudhrys represent a pro-establishment Punjabi feudal class from central Punjab which people in the smaller provinces and in southern Punjab are wary of.

 

With another Punjabi Mushahid Hussain sitting pretty at the party's Secretary General, PML has a serious image problem which will certainly thwart its ambition to claim the status of a national entity. This factor is making it increasingly difficult to sell PML to smaller provinces.

 

The question arises as to why the president couldn't pre-judge the futility of putting all his eggs in one basket. The simple answer could be that some people in his inner circle really believed in the ability of a PML led by Chaudhrys.

 

To be fair to President Musharraf, he had little choice in picking his allies from within PML. Outside that party, he had ample options to strike some sort of an understanding or compromise with PPP or still better with PML-N. But he didn't and now the options have squeezed considerably ever since.

 

By Mohammed Rizwan