Southward in North

Waziristan of late has never failed to make news. Recent tidings from the tribal region show that caught between the Army and the militants the area is far from being stable

By Rahimullah Yusufzai

Not long ago, South Waziristan tribal agency used to hog the media limelight on account of the military operation there against local and foreign militants. Now the focus of attention has shifted to its neighbouring North Waziristan region. Raids on villages and search of homes hiding suspects there has become almost a daily occurrence.

The happenings in South Waziristan and North Waziristan easily make international news due to the strong Western belief that defeating militants in these borderlands would deal a deadly blow to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda and its Taliban allies. The US government and media, as well as those in Western capitals, also believe that bin Laden and some of the top al-Qaeda figures must be hiding somewhere in the mountain recesses of Waziristan. For US-led coalition troops operating across the border in Afghanistan, military operations in Waziristan hold the key to facilitating their job and saving their lives in the battle against al-Qaeda and Taliban.

That the situation in North Waziristan is deteriorating fast could be gauged from the events there in recent days and weeks. Almost 50 people have died in incidents within the boundaries of North Waziristan and many more were injured; troops have raided a number of villages and searched scores of homes; meanwhile tribal elders and Ulema, feeling offended by the frequent military operations, have threatened to stop cooperating with the Pakistan Army in the hunt for foreign militants. The bodies of 24 people, mostly Pakistanis, were found inside Pakistani territory in North Waziristan after they were reportedly killed in a missile strike and bombing raids by US warplanes. This was blatant US transgression into Pakistani soil but the American, Afghan and Pakistani authorities all justified this action by alleging that the victims had taken part in an attack on a US base in Afghanistan's Paktika province and were trying to flee across the border to Pakistan. Another incident that caused anguish among the North Waziristan tribes was the killing of 17 people, including 10 children and five women, in a night-time gunbattle involving Pakistani troops and some militants near Miramshah. The military alleged that those killed were foreign militants but many tribesmen have disputed this claim. Local residents on the contrary claimed that the they were, in fact, Afghan refugees shifting in a truck to Afghanistan to meet a deadline for leaving North Waziristan.

All this while, Afghan government officials kept pointing accusing fingers at Pakistan, ignoring altogether the sacrifices made by Pakistani soldiers and the sufferings being heaped on law-abiding tribal people. The US military authorities and the outgoing American ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad also continued to push Pakistan to do more to curb the activities of militants allegedly crossing the 2,500-kilometres long and porous border into Afghanistan. There couldn't be a more unenviable situation for a country that has risked so much to side with the US in its war on terror and has suffered both in terms of human and economic costs to make America safe.

The reason for the Pakistan Army to hunt down foreign militants in North Waziristan is the premise that the wanted men slipped away to this tribal region after losing their hideouts in South Waziristan. The military authorities have been claiming that there were an estimated 500-600 foreign militants in South Waziristan when the operations against them first started early 2004. They now believe around 100 are still stranded in the Waziristan area, the rest having been killed, captured or forced to cross back to Afghanistan or melt away in Pakistani towns and cities. Those 100 or so foreigners are presently being targeted in the stepped up military campaign. As the intelligence available to the military is often of a poor quality, most raids on tribal villages and homes yield neither suspects nor weapons. But the intrusion on the privacy of the independent-minded tribespeople certainly causes anger. It also makes the task of the government in winning the trust of the tribes that much difficult.

The carrot and stick approach adopted in South Waziristan might not deliver the same results in North Waziristan, which is smaller in size and population but has a trickier tribal make-up and geography. South Waziristan was pacified, at least for the time-being, after a period of trial and error. The government, more importantly the military, realised after employing too much force that peaceful means were more likely to pacify the warlike tribes than imposing economic sanctions, herding people into jails and bombing suspected hideouts. The Shakai agreement it concluded with tribal militants led by the late Nek Mohammad didn't work when the military insisted that foreigners hiding in the area must register and seek amnesty. This condition was dropped when a deal was made with five of the most wanted tribal militants from Wana -- Haji Muhammad Omar, Sharif Khan, Javed Khan Karmazkhel, Maulana Abdul Aziz and Maulana Mohammad Abbas. This was a pragmatic approach and it enabled the military to rope in another dangerous tribal militant, Baitullah Mahsud, to sign a peace accord with the government and accept amnesty in return for renouncing militancy. Deprived of the support of his one-time boss Baitullah Mahsud and the Wana militants, another wanted tribal militant Abdullah Mahsud was effectively neutralised. Targeted killing of pro-government tribesmen excepted, South Waziristan is now largely peaceful. The relative peace has allowed the government and the Pakistan Army to launch a number of development projects for the uplift of the largely under-developed South Waziristan.

As in the case of South Waziristan, the political administration in North Waziristan concluded agreements with the tribal elders and Ulema to involve them in the campaign to isolate and expel foreign militants. Those harbouring foreigners were threatened with demolition of their homes in keeping with tribal traditions, along with hefty fines and expulsion from their villages. Frequent raids on villages and homes suspected of harbouring foreign militants also served as reminder to the tribal people that they risked everything if found offering sanctuaries to wanted men. The strategy has worked in certain cases but there are still many among the local residents willing to suffer the consequences associated with harbouring foreign militants.

The decision to ask thousands of Afghan refugees living in North Waziristan to leave was also prompted by the belief that some of them had links with al-Qaeda and Taliban. The Afghan refugees in South Waziristan had been expelled earlier with the majority crossing over to Afghanistan and the rest settling in other parts of Pakistan. Surprisingly, neither the United Nations High Commission for Refugees nor the Afghan government protested the forced repatriation of Afghan refugees from the area. In fact, the Afghan government was happy that refugees' camps situated close to the Pak-Afghan border and serving as breeding and staging ground for Taliban and their allies were being shut down. It is obvious that the US too approved of Pakistan government's move to remove Afghan refugees from its tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

The situation in North Waziristan is far from stable. It could take many twists and turns, as it did in South Waziristan. One only hopes that better sense prevails and there is no need to first fight and then sue for peace. That was the case in Wana. Hopefully it will not be replicated in North Waziristan.